2021 Oscar Predictions

Once again, my annual Oscar coverage is coming to a close. It's time to predict the winners for tonight's ceremony. For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to leave out commentary and pictures. I know I won't guess every category correctly, but that's part of the fun. I also didn't review most of the nominees before the ceremony, so I'll correct that soon.

2021 Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

"The Father"

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Mank"

"Minari"

"Nomadland"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Sound of Metal"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Will Win: "Nomadland"
Could Win: "Trial of the Chicago 7"
Should Win: "The Father," "Promising Young Woman," or "Minari" (All deserving)

Snubs: Another Round, Borat Subsequent MovieFilm, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, One Night in Miami, Palm Springs, and Soul.

Best Director

Emerald Fennell, "Promising Young Woman"

David Fincher, "Mank"

Lee Isaac Chung, "Minari"

Thomas Vinterberg, "Another Round"

Chloé Zhao, "Nomadland"

Will Win: Chloé Zhao, "Nomadland"
Could Win: Lee Isaac Chung, "Minari"
Should Win: All deserving

Snubs: Regina King, One Night in Miami, Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods, Christopher Nolan, Tenet, and Florian Zeller, The Father.

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed, "Sound of Metal"

Chadwick Boseman, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Anthony Hopkins, "The Father"

Gary Oldman, "Mank"

Steven Yeun, "Minari"

Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Could Win: Anthony Hopkins, "The Father"
Should Win: Riz Ahmed, "Sound of Metal," Chadwick Boseman, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom," and Anthony Hopkins, "The Father"

Snubs: Ben Affleck, The Wayback, Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods, and Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round.

Best Actress

Viola Davis, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Andra Day, "The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

Vanessa Kirby, "Pieces of a Woman"

Frances McDormand, "Nomadland"

Carey Mulligan, "Promising Young Woman"

Will Win: Carey Mulligan, "Promising Young Woman"
Could Win: Viola Davis, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" or Frances McDormand, "Nomadland"

Should Win: Carey Mulligan, "Promising Young Woman"

Snubs: Cristin Milloti, Palm Springs and Han Ye-ri, Minari.

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen, "The Trial of the Chicago 7"
Daniel Kaluuya, "Judas and the Black Messiah"

Leslie Odom Jr., "One Night in Miami"

Paul Raci, "Sound of Metal"

LaKeith Stanfield, "Judas and the Black Messiah"

Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, "Judas and the Black Messiah"
Could Win: Paul Raci, "Sound of Metal"
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya, "Judas and the Black Messiah" or Paul Raci, "Sound of Metal"

Snubs: Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods, Alan Kim, Minari, and Bill Murray, On The Rocks.

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova, "Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm"

Glenn Close, "Hillbilly Elegy"

Olivia Colman, "The Father"

Amanda Seyfried, "Mank"

Youn Yuh-Jung, "Minari"

Will Win: Youn Yuh-Jung, "Minari"
Could Win: Maria Bakalova, "Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm"or Glenn Close, "Hillbilly Elegy'
Should Win: Maria Bakalova, "Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm," or Youn Yuh-Jung, "Minari"

Snubs: Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian and Helena Zengel, News of the World.

Best Original Screenplay

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Minari"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Sound of Metal"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Will Win: "Promising Young Woman"
Could Win: "Judas and the Black Messiah" or "Minari"
Should Win: "Promising Young Woman"

Snub: Another Round, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs, and Soul.

Best Adapted Screenplay

"Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm"

"The Father"

"Nomadland"

"One Night in Miami"

"The White Tiger"

Will Win: "Nomadland"

Could Win: "The Father"
Should Win: "The Father"

Snubs: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

Best Film Editing

"The Father"

"Nomadland"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Sound of Metal"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Will Win: "Trial of the Chicago 7"
Could Win: "Sound of Metal" 
Should Win: "The Father" or "Sound of Metal"

Snubs: Tenet.

Best Cinematography

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Mank"

"News of the World"

"Nomadland"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Will Win: "Nomadland"
Could Win: "Mank"
Should Win: "Nomadland"

Snubs: Another Round, Da 5 Bloods, and Tenet.

Best Costume Design

"Emma"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Mank"

"Mulan"

"Pinocchio"

Will Win: "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"
Could Win: "Mank"
Should Win: "Emma" or "Mank"

Snubs: Promising Young Woman and Wonder Woman 1984.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

"Emma"

"Hillbilly Elegy"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Mank"

"Pinocchio"

Will Win: "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"
Could Win: "Pinocchio"
Should Win: "Pinocchio"

Snubs: Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn.

Best Production Design

"The Father"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Mank"

"News of the World"

"Tenet"

Will Win: "Mank"
Could Win: "The Father"or "Tenet"

Should Win: "The Father" or "Tenet"

Snubs: Promising Young Woman.

Best Visual Effects

"Love and Monsters"

"The Midnight Sky"

"Mulan"

"The One and Only Ivan"

"Tenet"

Will Win: "The Midnight Sky"
Could Win: "Tenet"
Should Win: "Tenet"

Snubs: Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn, The Invisible Man, and Mank.

Best Sound

"Greyhound"

"Mank"

"News of the World"

"Soul"

"Sound of Metal"

Will Win: "Sound of Metal"
Could Win: "Greyhound"
Should Win: "Sound of Metal"

Snub: The Invisible Man

Best Original Song

"Fight For You" from "Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Hear My Voice" from "The Trial of the Chicago 7"

"Húsavík" from "Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga"

"Io Si (Seen)" from "The Life Ahead"

"Speak Now" from "One Night in Miami"

Will Win: "Io Is (Seen)" from "The Life Ahead"
Could Win: "Fight for You" from "Judas and the Black Messiah"
Should Win: "Speak Now" from "One Night in Miami "

Snubs: "The Plan" from Tenet.

Best Original Score

"Da 5 Bloods"

"Mank"

"Minari"

"News of the World"

"Soul"

Will Win: "Soul"
Could Win: "Minari"
Should Win: "Da 5 Bloods," "Minari," or "Soul"

Snubs: Tenet.

Best Animated Feature

"Onward"

"Over The Moon"

"A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon" 

"Soul"

"Wolfwalkers"

Will Win: "Soul"
Could Win: "Wolfwalkers"
Should Win: "Soul" or "Wolfwalkers"

Best International Feature Film

"Another Round"

"Better Days"

"Collective"

"The Man Who Sold His Skin"

"Quo Vadis, Aida?"

Will Win: "Another Round"

Should Win: "Another Round"

Best Documentary Feature

"Collective"

"Crip Camp"

"The Mole Agent"

"My Octopus Teacher"

"Time"

Will Win: "My Octopus Teacher"

Best Documentary, Short Subject

"Collette"
"A Concerto is a Conversation"
"Do Not Split"
"Hunger Ward"
"A Love Song for Latasha"

Will Win: "A Love Song for Latasha"

Best Short Film, Live Action

"Feeling Through"

"The Letter Room"

"The Present"

"Two Distant Strangers"

"White Eye"

Will Win: "Two Distant Strangers"

Best Short Film, Animated

"Burrow"

"Genius Loci"

"If Anything Happens I Love You"

"Opera"

"Yes People"

Will Win: "Burrow"

2020 Oscar Predictions

I've reached the final phase in my annual Oscar coverage. It's time to predict the winners. Chances are I'll be wrong about quite a few of these, but I'm basing my guesses on the results of precursor awards, my knowledge of the Academy, and gut instincts. Like last year, I'll include a brief blurb with my thoughts on the category and reasoning behind my choices. I won't do this for every category since I haven't seen every nominee, but I'll dive into the rest.

2020 Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

"1917"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Marriage Story"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
"Parasite"

Starting with the big prize, 1917 has steamrolled its competition at the precursors. It's won at the Golden Globes, DGA, PGA, CAS, ASC, and BAFTA awards, which seems like a potent combination. However, there is clearly a widespread passion for Parasite considering its SAG Ensemble, ACE, ADG, and WGA wins and the standing ovation it received during the SAG Awards, which is important to take note of considering actors are the largest voting branch of the Academy. I'm predicting 1917 because it seems like the safer choice, but I'd certainly love an upset from Parasite.

The third film to keep an eye on is Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood. It's an old fashioned movie made by a well-respected writer/director about Hollywood. Those three films will undoubtedly perform best on the preferential ballot. Jojo Rabbit and Joker are also realistic possibilities considering their key Editing and Screenplay nominations.

Meanwhile, it's just depressing that The Irishman's Oscar chances have faded almost completely, and it may walk away tonight empty-handed in spite of receiving ten nominations. Otherwise, I like all these nominees and would be happy with any of them winning. I'd LOVE for Marriage Story to win, but that's an unrealistic pipe dream at this point.

Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Parasite"
Should Win: "Marriage Story," "Parasite," or "1917" (All deserving)

Snubs: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Farewell, Knives Out, and Portrait of a Lady on Fire.

Best Director

Bong Joon-Ho, "Parasite"
Martin Scorsese, "The Irishman"
Quentin Tarantino, "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Sam Mendes, "1917"
Todd Phillips, "Joker"

This category has a similar story as Best Picture. It's between Mendes and Bong. Mendes won at the Director's Guild and has the movie with "showier direction" that the Academy tends to favor while Bong's got a passionate following. A split in voting could lead to one of the other three emerging as a surprise winner, but I doubt that'll be the case.

Will Win: Sam Mendes, "1917"
Could Win: Bong Joon-Ho, "Parasite"
Should Win: Bong Joon-Ho, "Parasite"

Snubs: Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story, Greta Gerwig, Little Women, Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Céline Sciamma, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, and Lulu Wang, The Farewell.

Best Actor

Adam Driver, "Marriage Story"
Antonio Banderas, "Pain and Glory"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Joker"
Jonathan Pryce, "The Two Popes"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"

Joaquin Phoenix has got this win locked. While I wish it were going to Adam Driver, Phoenix has swept all the precursors, and his performance was one of the few almost universally acclaimed aspects of a controversial film.

Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, "Joker"
Could Win: Adam Driver "Marriage Story"
Should Win: Adam Driver, "Marriage Story"

Snubs: Robert De Niro, The Irishman, Taron Egerton, Rocketman, and Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems.

Best Actress

Charlize Theron, "Bombshell"
Cynthia Erivo, "Harriet"
Renée Zellweger, "Judy"
Saoirse Ronan, "Little Women"
Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"

See Best Actor, but substitute Zellweger for Phoenix and Johansson/Ronan for Driver.

Will Win: Renée Zellweger, "Judy"
Could Win: Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan, "Little Women" or Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"

Snubs: Ana De Armas, Knives Out, Awkwafina, The Farewell, and Lupita Nyong'o, Us.

Best Supporting Actor

Al Pacino, "The Irishman"
Anthony Hopkins, "The Two Popes"
Brad Pitt, "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Tom Hanks, "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood"

Again, Pitt has won every precursor, so he's pretty much got this locked.

Will Win: Brad Pitt, "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood"
Could Win: Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Should Win: Brad Pitt "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood" or Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"

Snubs: Song Kang-Ho, Parasite.

Best Supporting Actress

Florence Pugh, "Little Women"
Kathy Bates, "Richard Jewell"
Laura Dern, "Marriage Story"
Margot Robbie, "Bombshell"
Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit"

And Dern also won all the precursors. The four acting categories are pretty much locked.

Will Win: Laura Dern, "Marriage Story"
Could Win: Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit"
Should Win: Margot Robbie, "Bombshell," or Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit" (All deserving)

Snubs: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers, Park So Dam, Parasite, and Zhao Shuzen, The Farewell.

Best Original Screenplay

"1917"
"Knives Out"
"Marriage Story"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
"Parasite"

Parasite seems to be in a prime position to take Original Screenplay considering its win at the Writer's Guild. However, Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood wasn't eligible there so it could snatch a surprise victory.

Will Win: "Parasite"
Could Win: "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Should Win: "Marriage Story"

Snub: Portrait of a Lady on Fire.

Best Adapted Screenplay

"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"The Two Popes"

Adapted Screenplay is between Jojo Rabbit and Little Women. Jojo Rabbit won the WGA and BAFTA, so it seems more likely, but I can see a scenario where voters want to reward Gerwig since she was snubbed for Director.

Will Win: "Jojo Rabbit"
Could Win: "Little Women"
Should Win: "The Irishman"

Snubs: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Dark Waters.

Best Film Editing

"Ford v Ferrari"
"The Irishman"

"Jojo Rabbit"

"Joker"

"Parasite"

Parasite and Ford v Ferrari seem equally likely given their precursor wins. Both would be well-deserved winners, but its a matter of passion vs. bias against foreign films. Older Academy voters will probably lean towards Ford v Ferrari.

Will Win: "Ford v Ferrari"
Could Win: "Parasite" 
Should Win: "Ford v Ferrari" or "Parasite"

Snubs: Little Women, Marriage Story, and Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood.

Best Cinematography

"1917"
"The Irishman"
"Joker"
"The Lighthouse"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"

Deakins is walking away with his second Oscar tonight. 1917 is a film that revolves entirely around its cinematography due to the "one-take" approach. Voters will take notice of that.

Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Joker"
Should Win: "1917"

Snubs: Parasite and Portrait of a Lady on Fire.

Best Costume Design

"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"

Like Adapted Screenplay, I feel Costume Design is between Jojo Rabbit and Little Women. Both feature period costumes which the Academy tends to favor, and I think voters will want to reward Little Women in some capacity.

Will Win: "Little Women"
Could Win: "Jojo Rabbit"
Should Win: "Little Women" or "Jojo Rabbit"

Snubs: Dolemite Is My Name and Rocketman.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

"1917"
"Bombshell"
"Joker"
"Judy"
"Maleficent: Mistress of Evil"

This is the first year with five nominees in this category that typically has three. I haven't seen Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, but feel it's obvious what the makeup work was. This seems like it's Bombshell's to lose because of the impressive transformations. I can see a scenario where Joker wins due to how reportedly difficult Phoenix was to deal with onset.

Will Win: "Bombshell"
Could Win: "Joker"
Should Win: "Bombshell"

Snubs: Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood and Rocketman.

Best Production Design

"1917"
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
"Parasite"

This category has an excellent crop of nominees. I suspect it's between 1917 and Parasite, though. Each has a "wow factor," considering 1917 couldn't hide as much of the set, and the house in Parasite was constructed from scratch. Meanwhile, Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood featured remarkable recreations of 1969 Los Angeles.

Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Parasite"
Should Win: "1917"

Snubs: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.

Best Visual Effects

"1917"
"Avengers: Endgame"
"The Irishman"
"The Lion King"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

This is actually one of the trickiest categories. The precursors have each awarded different films, leaving me pretty clueless. I think 1917 will benefit most from being a Best Picture nominee as well as how its effects are less noticeable.

Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "The Irishman"
Should Win: "1917," "The Irishman," or "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker" (All deserving)

Snubs: Ad Astra.

Best Sound Editing

"1917"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"Joker"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

The Academy loves to award war films here. However, Ford v Ferrari's sound design for the racing sequences is its biggest draw. Either could win here, but I'm predicting 1917 will sweep the tech categories, so I'm going with it.

Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Ford v Ferrari"
Should Win: "1917" or "Ford v Ferrari"

Snub: Avengers: Endgame and Ad Astra.

Best Sound Mixing

"1917"
"Ad Astra"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"Joker"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"

See Sound Editing.

Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Ford v Ferrari"
Should Win: "Ford v Ferrari"

Snub: Rocketman and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.

Best Original Song

"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" from "Toy Story 4"
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" from "Rocketman"
"I'm Standing With You" from "Breakthrough"
"Into The Unknown" from "Frozen II"
"Stand Up" from "Harriet"

I figure the Academy will want to award Rocketman something and it will be the first Original Song win for Elton John and his songwriting partner Bernie Taupin to win together (Elton's won previously with Tim Rice for "Can You Feel The Love Tonight" from the animated The Lion King). The two Disney songs will probably split the vote and allow them to cruise in for an easy victory. However, "Stand Up" could potentially upset due to that as well.

Will Win: "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" from "Rocketman"
Could Win: "Stand Up" from "Harriet"
Should Win: "Into The Unknown" from "Frozen II"

Snubs: "Daily Battles" from Motherless Brooklyn, "Show Yourself" from Frozen II, and "Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" from Wild Rose.

Best Original Score

"1917"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Marriage Story"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

Hildur Guðnadóttir's won all the precursors, so I think she's got this one locked. If she wins, she'll be the first solo female composer to do so. However, the Academy's yet to award Thomas Newman, and he's been nominated for fifteen Oscars, so he could upset. One interesting tidbit is that nominees Randy and Thomas Newman are cousins.

Will Win: "Joker"
Could Win: "1917"
Should Win: I honestly can't choose a favorite between these (All are deserving)

Snubs: Avengers: Endgame and How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World.

Best Animated Feature

"How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World"
"I Lost My Body"
"Klaus"
"Missing Link"
"Toy Story 4"

Lately, I've been sensing an anti-Disney sentiment in this category. I think many in the industry are resentful about the 20th Century Fox acquisition. Therefore, I'm uncertain of Toy Story 4's chances, especially considering Frozen II wasn't nominated. Missing Link won the Golden Globe while Klaus won the Annie Award and BAFTA.

Will Win: "Klaus"
Could Win: "Toy Story 4"
Should Win: "How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World"

Best International Feature Film

"Corpus Christi"
"Honeyland"
"Les Misérables"
"Pain and Glory"
"Parasite"

I've only seen two of these, as of writing, but this is Parasite's guaranteed win of the night. 

Will Win: "Parasite"

Could Win: "Pain and Glory"

Should Win: "Parasite"

Best Documentary Feature

"American Factory"
"The Cave"
"The Edge of Democracy"
"For Sama"
"Honeyland"

I haven't watched any of these yet. The Obamas produced American Factory, and that documentary is widely accessible through Netflix. Meanwhile, For Sama is about Syrian refugees so I could see passionate voters behind it.

Will Win: "For Sama"
Could Win: "American Factory"

Snub: "Apollo 11."

Best Documentary, Short Subject

"In The Absence"
"Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're A Girl)"
"Life Overtakes Me"
"St. Louis Superman"
"Walk Run Cha-Cha"

I haven't seen any of these, so I'm just guessing, to be honest.

Will Win: "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're A Girl)"

Best Short Film, Live Action

"Brotherhood"
"Nefta Football Club"
"The Neighbors' Window"
"Saria"
"A Sister"

I watched two of these yesterday, and will try to cram Nefta Football Club in before the ceremony. The Neighbors' Window was the most impressive so I'm going with that for simplicity's sake.

Will Win: "The Neighbors' Window"
Should Win: "The Neighbors' Window"

Best Short Film, Animated

"Dcera (Daughter)"

"Hair Love"

"Kitbull"

"Memorable"

"Sister"

I found all of these online, watched them yesterday, and was surprised how universally depressing they all were. I think Hair Love may win since its written and co-directed by former NFL player, Matthew Cherry.

Will Win: "Hair Love"
Could Win: "Kitbull"
Should Win: "Hair Love"

2019 Oscar Predictions

As evidenced by the thumbnail, I'm making an effort to change things up this awards season. Typically, I just list out the nominees, who I'm rooting for, and who I think will win in my predictions posts. This year, I'd like to expand on that by adding a brief blurb with my thoughts on the category and reasoning behind my choices. I won't do this for every category because I haven't seen every nominee, but I'll dive into those categories I do have passionate opinions about. I figured this would be a more interesting read than a listing of everything nominated, so I hope you enjoy!

2019 Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

"Black Panther"
"BlacKkKlansman"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"The Favourite"
"Green Book"
"Roma"
"A Star Is Born"
"Vice"

Starting with the big prize, there's not a clear Best Picture front runner like there has been in years past. The precursor guild awards have all gone to different films, as well as the BAFTA and Golden Globes for Best Drama and Best Musical/Comedy respectively. Anything could feasibly win, but it seems to be between Roma and Green Book.

Though A Star Is Born and BlacKkKlansman have been consistently nominated by most precursors, they've hardly won anything all season long. I'd say the preferential voting system will favor the likes of Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody, and maybe even Black Panther because those films seem to have widespread industry support. Vice was too divisive to win Picture, and even if The Favourite is my favorite, I don't see it winning here either.

Roma's the underdog in many respects, being a black and white foreign language film distributed by Netflix, so that's largely why I'm rooting for it. Otherwise, an immaculately made film that's well-deserving of the win.

Will Win: "Roma"
Could Win: "Green Book"
Should Win: "Roma"

Snubs: "Eighth Grade," "First Man," "If Beale Street Could Talk," "Mary Poppins Returns," "Mission: Impossible - Fallout," "Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse," and "Widows."

Best Director

Alfonso Cuarón, "Roma"
Yorgos Lanthimos, "The Favourite"
Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman"
Adam McKay, "Vice"
Pawel Pawlikowski, "Cold War"

This is a done deal in my eyes. Alfonso Cuarón's got this in the bag as he's consistently won the director prize at just about every one of the ceremonies leading up to the Oscars.

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, "Roma"
Could Win: Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman"
Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón, "Roma"

Snubs: Damien Chazelle, First Man, Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born, Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk, Christopher McQuarrie, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, and Steve McQueen, Widows.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, "Vice"
Bradley Cooper, "A Star Is Born"
Willem Dafoe, "At Eternity's Gate"
Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Viggo Mortensen, "Green Book"

Unfortunately, between an actor who lip-synced and one who actually sang, it appears the Academy's going to favor the one who phoned it in, aka Rami Malek. It's really between Malek and Bale since both have won Best Actor in the precursors. However, I feel Malek has the edge since he won at the Screen Actor Guild Awards.

I'm rooting for Cooper because the poor guy can't catch a break as his directorial debut A Star Is Born hardly won anything thus far and will likely only win Original Song come Oscar night. I felt he and Bale both gave great performances though and would be happy to see either win. As for the other three, I haven't seen At Eternity's Gate so I have no opinion there and I don't even think Malek or Mortensen should have been nominated.

Will Win: Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Could Win: Christian Bale, "Vice"
Should Win: Bradley Cooper, "A Star Is Born"

Snubs: Tom Cruise, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, Ryan Gosling, First Man, Ethan Hawke, First Reformed, and John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman.

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, "Roma"
Glenn Close, "The Wife"
Olivia Colman, "The Favourite"
Lady Gaga, "A Star Is Born"
Melissa McCarthy, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"

The Best Actress Oscar seems to be between Close and Colman. Close has the overdue narrative since she's been nominated for seven Oscars and never won while Colman gave the superior performance in a film that's actually been nominated in other categories. Aparicio, Gaga, and McCarthy are all deserving in my eyes though. Of the five, Aparicio impressed me the most of the bunch since she had never acted before. I'd honestly be content with any outcome here.

Will Win: Glenn Close, "The Wife"
Could Win: Olivia Colman, "The Favourite"
Should Win: Yalitza Aparicio, "Roma" or Olivia Colman, "The Favourite"

Snubs: Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns, Toni Collette, Hereditary, Viola Davis, Widows, Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade, and KiKi Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, "Green Book"
Adam Driver, "BlacKkKlansman"
Sam Elliott, "A Star Is Born"
Richard E. Grant, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Sam Rockwell, "Vice"

Ali has won every precursor, so he's pretty much got this locked. However, Richard E. Grant could possibly upset given his likability and enthusiastic attitude this awards season. I'd love to see Grant win because Ali's already got an Oscar.

Will Win: Mahershala Ali, "Green Book"
Could Win: Richard E. Grant, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Should Win: Richard E. Grant, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"

Snubs: Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy, Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther, and Daniel Kaluuya, Widows.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, "Vice"
Marina de Tavira, "Roma"
Regina King, "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Emma Stone, "The Favourite"
Rachel Weisz, "The Favourite"

This is easily one of the strongest categories of them all since all five women nominated truly deserve to win. Regina King will probably take it since she's won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award, but many are speculating Weisz could upset similarly to Mark Rylance winning Best Supporting Actor in 2016 (both won the BAFTA and nothing else). Honestly, It's difficult for me to choose between Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz for my favorite performance of the bunch so I'm unrealistically rooting for Marina de Tavira. However, I'll be happy with any outcome.

Will Win: Regina King, "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Could Win: Rachel Weisz, "The Favourite"
Should Win: Emma Stone or Rachel Weisz, "The Favourite" (All deserving)

Snubs: Elizabeth Debecki, Widows and Claire Foy, First Man.

Best Original Screenplay

"The Favourite"
"First Reformed"
"Green Book"
"Roma"
"Vice"

This category seems to be a toss-up between The Favourite and Green Book, but I think this is the category where the Green Book controversy will hurt this film most. Of course, I thought that when it came to predicting the nominations, so I could be proven wrong. First Reformed winning would be a pleasant surprise, but I won't hold my breath.

Will Win: "The Favourite"
Could Win: "Green Book"
Should Win: "The Favourite"

Snub: Eighth Grade.

Best Adapted Screenplay

"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"BlacKkKlansman"
"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"A Star Is Born"

This is one of the more wide-open categories. I think BlacKkKlanman, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, and If Beale Street Could Talk have a solid shot at winning, but I have a feeling the Academy wants to reward Spike Lee and will bestow BlacKkKlanman with the win. However, there's been a sudden surge in support for Can You Ever Forgive Me? with screenplay wins at the Writers Guild Awards and Film Independent Spirit Awards that could translate here.

Will Win: "BlacKkKlansman"
Could Win: "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Should Win: "If Beale Street Could Talk"

Snubs: Black Panther, First Man, Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse, and Widows.

Best Film Editing

"BlacKkKlansman"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"The Favourite"
"Green Book"
"Vice"

This is perhaps one of the more puzzling categories due to the inclusion of Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book. Mainly because no one left those films talking about the editing, and if they did, I doubt they had favorable comments. I think Vice will ultimately take it though because it has the flashiest editing of the five while I'm pegging Bohemian Rhapsody for the upset on account of industry support.

Will Win: "Vice"
Could Win: "Bohemian Rhapsody" 
Should Win: "The Favourite" or "Vice"

Snubs: American Animals, First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, Roma, A Star Is Born, and Widows.

Best Cinematography

"Cold War"
"The Favourite"
"Never Look Away"
"Roma"
"A Star Is Born"

Best Cinematography is really Cuarón's to lose. However, Cold War beat Roma at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards, so that's a possible upset you can look out for.

Will Win: "Roma"
Could Win: "Cold War"
Should Win: "Roma"

Snubs: Annihilation, First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, and Widows.

Best Costume Design

"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"Black Panther"
"The Favourite"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Mary Queen of Scots"

Black Panther and The Favourite will be battling this one out. Ever since I saw Black Panther about a year ago, this has been the Oscar I felt it had the best chance of winning, but the Academy does tend to like period piece costumes.

Will Win: "Black Panther"
Could Win: "The Favourite"
Should Win: "Black Panther," "The Favourite," or "Mary Poppins Returns"

Snubs: Crazy Rich Asians and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

"Border"
"Mary Queen of Scots"
"Vice"

I've only seen Vice of these three nominees, so I don't have much say here. But Vice's makeup was incredible, and it's nominated elsewhere, so I'll give it the edge over the other two.

Will Win: "Vice"

Snubs: Black Panther and Suspiria.

Best Production Design

"Black Panther"
"The Favourite"
"First Man"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Roma"

This category has an excellent crop of nominees. Ultimately, I'm thinking this will go to The Favourite due to it being a period piece with such elaborate set dressing, but I can see this playing out similarly to Costume Design.

Will Win: "The Favourite"
Could Win: "Black Panther"
Should Win: "The Favourite"

Snubs: Isle of Dogs and Paddington 2

Best Visual Effects

"Avengers: Infinity War"
"Christopher Robin"
"First Man"
"Ready Player One"
"Solo: A Star Wars Story"

Now for one of the categories I'm most interested in. I think this is a case of Avengers: Infinity War's grand CG-spectacle vs. First Man's subtle, unnoticed effects. The Academy tends to favor the latter, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Marvel take this one given Infinity War's impressive haul at the Visual Effects Society Awards. Meanwhile, Solo: A Star Wars Story seamlessly blended practical and CG effects, Ready Player One was comprised almost entirely of CGI, and Christopher Robin convincingly brought a stuffed bear to life.

Will Win: "Avengers: Infinity War"
Could Win: "First Man"
Should Win: "Avengers: Infinity War," "First Man," or "Solo: A Star Wars Story" (All deserving)

Snubs: Annihilation, Mary Poppins Returns, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, and Paddington 2.

Best Sound Editing

"Black Panther"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"First Man"
"A Quiet Place"
"Roma"

I think this category will most likely go to the film about music, though A Quiet Place could win given the film's focus on sound. I'd love to see First Man win anything though, and this would be particularly well-deserved.

Will Win: "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Could Win: "A Quiet Place"
Should Win: "First Man"

Snub: Mission: Impossible - Fallout

Best Sound Mixing

"Black Panther"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"First Man"
"Roma"
"A Star Is Born"

See Sound Editing and sub out A Quiet Place with A Star Is Born.

Will Win: "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Could Win: "A Star Is Born"
Should Win: "First Man"

Snub: Mission: Impossible - Fallout

Best Original Song

"All The Stars" from "Black Panther"
"I'll Fight" from "RBG"
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" from "Mary Poppins Returns"
"Shallow" from "A Star Is Born"
"When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" from "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"

This is one of the most guaranteed locks of the night in my mind. Lady Gaga is going to walk away with her first Oscar tomorrow night, and that's that. I'd be flabbergasted if anything else won.

Will Win: "Shallow" from "A Star Is Born"
Could Win: "All The Stars" from "Black Panther"
Should Win: "Shallow from "A Star Is Born"

Snubs: "A Place Called Slaughter Race" from Ralph Breaks the Internet, "Sunflower" from Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse, "Suspirium" from Suspiria, and "Trip A Little Light Fantastic" from Mary Poppins Returns.

Best Original Score

"Black Panther"
"BlacKkKlansman"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"Isle of Dogs"
"Mary Poppins Returns"

I'm still upset that First Man was snubbed here, to be honest. Of all the categories it should have received a nomination in, this seemed like its best shot. Nevertheless, the situation is that I have to choose my favorite of these five as well as the one I think stands the best chance of winning. With that in mind, all five of these scores are excellent. However, Nicholas Britell's work for If Beale Street Could Talk is the best by far. I can see Black Panther or BlacKkKlansman potentially upsetting since they secured many other nominations, but I say Britell's got this.

Will Win: "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Could Win: "Black Panther"
Should Win: "If Beale Street Could Talk"

Snubs: First Man and Mission: Impossible - Fallout.

Best Animated Feature

"Isle of Dogs"
"Incredibles 2"
"Mirai"
"Ralph Breaks the Internet"
"Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse"

I REALLY hope Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse wins. It's my favorite animated film of last year by a long shot, and it's won every precursor. While the Academy's Disney/Pixar bias could keep it from winning, I think a split vote between Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet may work in Spider-Verse's favor. Not to mention that Spider-Verse is the most ground-breaking of the five, with new software implemented to animate the film.

Will Win: "Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse"
Could Win: "Incredibles 2"
Should Win: "Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse"

Best Foreign Language Film

"Capernaum"

"Cold War"

"Never Look Away"

"Roma" 

"Shoplifters"

I'd hoped to see all these films but wasn't able to find any playing near me. Therefore, I'm rooting for Roma by default. I think Cold War could win if the Academy wants to spread the love, especially considering its two other nominations.

Will Win: "Roma"

Could Win: "Cold War"

Should Win: "Roma"

Best Documentary Feature

"Free Solo"
"Hale County This Morning, This Evening"
"Minding the Gap"
"Of Fathers and Sons"
"RBG"

I only saw three of these five, but Free Solo's subject matter and execution were the most interesting. It's also the highest grossing documentary of these five and has won the BAFTA, so with Won't You Be My Neighbor? out of the picture, It will probably win. However, I think the current political climate could lead to a win for RBG.

Will Win: "Free Solo"
Could Win: "RBG"
Should Win: "Free Solo"

Snub: "Won't You Be My Neighbor."

Best Documentary, Short Subject

"Black Sheep"
"End Game"
"Lifeboat"
"A Night at the Garden"
"Period. End of Sentence."

I haven't seen any of these, so I'm just guessing, to be honest.

Will Win: "Period. End of Sentence"

Best Short Film, Live Action

"Detainment"
"Fauve"
"Marguerite"
"Mother"
"Skin"

I haven't seen any of these, so I'm just guessing, to be honest.

Will Win: "Marguerite"

Best Short Film, Animated

"Animal Behavior"
"Bao"
"Late Afternoon"
"One Small Step"
"Weekends"

I've only seen Bao because it played in front of Incredibles 2 so I don't really have an opinion here. However, it being a Pixar short means its likely been seen by a wider audience and stands the best chance.

Will Win: "Bao"