I've reached the final phase in my annual Oscar coverage. It's time to predict the winners. Chances are I'll be wrong about quite a few of these, but I'm basing my guesses on the results of precursor awards, my knowledge of the Academy, and gut instincts. Like last year, I'll include a brief blurb with my thoughts on the category and reasoning behind my choices. I won't do this for every category since I haven't seen every nominee, but I'll dive into the rest.
2020 Oscar Predictions
Best Picture
"1917"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Marriage Story"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
"Parasite"
Starting with the big prize, 1917 has steamrolled its competition at the precursors. It's won at the Golden Globes, DGA, PGA, CAS, ASC, and BAFTA awards, which seems like a potent combination. However, there is clearly a widespread passion for Parasite considering its SAG Ensemble, ACE, ADG, and WGA wins and the standing ovation it received during the SAG Awards, which is important to take note of considering actors are the largest voting branch of the Academy. I'm predicting 1917 because it seems like the safer choice, but I'd certainly love an upset from Parasite.
The third film to keep an eye on is Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood. It's an old fashioned movie made by a well-respected writer/director about Hollywood. Those three films will undoubtedly perform best on the preferential ballot. Jojo Rabbit and Joker are also realistic possibilities considering their key Editing and Screenplay nominations.
Meanwhile, it's just depressing that The Irishman's Oscar chances have faded almost completely, and it may walk away tonight empty-handed in spite of receiving ten nominations. Otherwise, I like all these nominees and would be happy with any of them winning. I'd LOVE for Marriage Story to win, but that's an unrealistic pipe dream at this point.
"Ford v Ferrari"
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Marriage Story"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
"Parasite"
Starting with the big prize, 1917 has steamrolled its competition at the precursors. It's won at the Golden Globes, DGA, PGA, CAS, ASC, and BAFTA awards, which seems like a potent combination. However, there is clearly a widespread passion for Parasite considering its SAG Ensemble, ACE, ADG, and WGA wins and the standing ovation it received during the SAG Awards, which is important to take note of considering actors are the largest voting branch of the Academy. I'm predicting 1917 because it seems like the safer choice, but I'd certainly love an upset from Parasite.
The third film to keep an eye on is Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood. It's an old fashioned movie made by a well-respected writer/director about Hollywood. Those three films will undoubtedly perform best on the preferential ballot. Jojo Rabbit and Joker are also realistic possibilities considering their key Editing and Screenplay nominations.
Meanwhile, it's just depressing that The Irishman's Oscar chances have faded almost completely, and it may walk away tonight empty-handed in spite of receiving ten nominations. Otherwise, I like all these nominees and would be happy with any of them winning. I'd LOVE for Marriage Story to win, but that's an unrealistic pipe dream at this point.
Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Parasite"
Should Win: "Marriage Story," "Parasite," or "1917" (All deserving)
Could Win: "Parasite"
Should Win: "Marriage Story," "Parasite," or "1917" (All deserving)
Snubs: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Farewell, Knives Out, and Portrait of a Lady on Fire.
Best Director
Bong Joon-Ho, "Parasite"
Martin Scorsese, "The Irishman"
Quentin Tarantino, "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Sam Mendes, "1917"
Todd Phillips, "Joker"
This category has a similar story as Best Picture. It's between Mendes and Bong. Mendes won at the Director's Guild and has the movie with "showier direction" that the Academy tends to favor while Bong's got a passionate following. A split in voting could lead to one of the other three emerging as a surprise winner, but I doubt that'll be the case.
Will Win: Sam Mendes, "1917"
Could Win: Bong Joon-Ho, "Parasite"
Should Win: Bong Joon-Ho, "Parasite"
Martin Scorsese, "The Irishman"
Quentin Tarantino, "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Sam Mendes, "1917"
Todd Phillips, "Joker"
This category has a similar story as Best Picture. It's between Mendes and Bong. Mendes won at the Director's Guild and has the movie with "showier direction" that the Academy tends to favor while Bong's got a passionate following. A split in voting could lead to one of the other three emerging as a surprise winner, but I doubt that'll be the case.
Will Win: Sam Mendes, "1917"
Could Win: Bong Joon-Ho, "Parasite"
Should Win: Bong Joon-Ho, "Parasite"
Snubs: Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story, Greta Gerwig, Little Women, Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Céline Sciamma, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, and Lulu Wang, The Farewell.
Best Actor
Adam Driver, "Marriage Story"
Antonio Banderas, "Pain and Glory"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Joker"
Jonathan Pryce, "The Two Popes"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Joaquin Phoenix has got this win locked. While I wish it were going to Adam Driver, Phoenix has swept all the precursors, and his performance was one of the few almost universally acclaimed aspects of a controversial film.
Antonio Banderas, "Pain and Glory"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Joker"
Jonathan Pryce, "The Two Popes"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Joaquin Phoenix has got this win locked. While I wish it were going to Adam Driver, Phoenix has swept all the precursors, and his performance was one of the few almost universally acclaimed aspects of a controversial film.
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, "Joker"
Could Win: Adam Driver "Marriage Story"
Should Win: Adam Driver, "Marriage Story"
Could Win: Adam Driver "Marriage Story"
Should Win: Adam Driver, "Marriage Story"
Snubs: Robert De Niro, The Irishman, Taron Egerton, Rocketman, and Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems.
Best Actress
Charlize Theron, "Bombshell"
Cynthia Erivo, "Harriet"
Renée Zellweger, "Judy"
Saoirse Ronan, "Little Women"
Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"
See Best Actor, but substitute Zellweger for Phoenix and Johansson/Ronan for Driver.
Cynthia Erivo, "Harriet"
Renée Zellweger, "Judy"
Saoirse Ronan, "Little Women"
Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"
See Best Actor, but substitute Zellweger for Phoenix and Johansson/Ronan for Driver.
Will Win: Renée Zellweger, "Judy"
Could Win: Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan, "Little Women" or Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"
Could Win: Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan, "Little Women" or Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"
Snubs: Ana De Armas, Knives Out, Awkwafina, The Farewell, and Lupita Nyong'o, Us.
Best Supporting Actor
Al Pacino, "The Irishman"
Anthony Hopkins, "The Two Popes"
Brad Pitt, "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Tom Hanks, "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood"
Again, Pitt has won every precursor, so he's pretty much got this locked.
Anthony Hopkins, "The Two Popes"
Brad Pitt, "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Tom Hanks, "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood"
Again, Pitt has won every precursor, so he's pretty much got this locked.
Will Win: Brad Pitt, "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood"
Could Win: Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Should Win: Brad Pitt "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood" or Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Could Win: Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Should Win: Brad Pitt "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood" or Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Snubs: Song Kang-Ho, Parasite.
Best Supporting Actress
Florence Pugh, "Little Women"
Kathy Bates, "Richard Jewell"
Laura Dern, "Marriage Story"
Margot Robbie, "Bombshell"
Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit"
And Dern also won all the precursors. The four acting categories are pretty much locked.
Kathy Bates, "Richard Jewell"
Laura Dern, "Marriage Story"
Margot Robbie, "Bombshell"
Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit"
And Dern also won all the precursors. The four acting categories are pretty much locked.
Will Win: Laura Dern, "Marriage Story"
Could Win: Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit"
Should Win: Margot Robbie, "Bombshell," or Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit" (All deserving)
Could Win: Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit"
Should Win: Margot Robbie, "Bombshell," or Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit" (All deserving)
Snubs: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers, Park So Dam, Parasite, and Zhao Shuzen, The Farewell.
Best Original Screenplay
"1917""Knives Out"
"Marriage Story"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
"Parasite"
Parasite seems to be in a prime position to take Original Screenplay considering its win at the Writer's Guild. However, Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood wasn't eligible there so it could snatch a surprise victory.
Will Win: "Parasite"
Could Win: "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Should Win: "Marriage Story"
Could Win: "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Should Win: "Marriage Story"
Snub: Portrait of a Lady on Fire.
Best Adapted Screenplay
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"The Two Popes"
Adapted Screenplay is between Jojo Rabbit and Little Women. Jojo Rabbit won the WGA and BAFTA, so it seems more likely, but I can see a scenario where voters want to reward Gerwig since she was snubbed for Director.
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"The Two Popes"
Adapted Screenplay is between Jojo Rabbit and Little Women. Jojo Rabbit won the WGA and BAFTA, so it seems more likely, but I can see a scenario where voters want to reward Gerwig since she was snubbed for Director.
Will Win: "Jojo Rabbit"
Could Win: "Little Women"
Should Win: "The Irishman"
Could Win: "Little Women"
Should Win: "The Irishman"
Snubs: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Dark Waters.
Best Film Editing
"Ford v Ferrari"
"The Irishman"
Parasite and Ford v Ferrari seem equally likely given their precursor wins. Both would be well-deserved winners, but its a matter of passion vs. bias against foreign films. Older Academy voters will probably lean towards Ford v Ferrari.
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Parasite"Parasite and Ford v Ferrari seem equally likely given their precursor wins. Both would be well-deserved winners, but its a matter of passion vs. bias against foreign films. Older Academy voters will probably lean towards Ford v Ferrari.
Will Win: "Ford v Ferrari"
Could Win: "Parasite"
Should Win: "Ford v Ferrari" or "Parasite"
Could Win: "Parasite"
Should Win: "Ford v Ferrari" or "Parasite"
Snubs: Little Women, Marriage Story, and Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood.
Best Cinematography
"1917"
"The Irishman"
"Joker"
"The Lighthouse"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Deakins is walking away with his second Oscar tonight. 1917 is a film that revolves entirely around its cinematography due to the "one-take" approach. Voters will take notice of that.
"The Irishman"
"Joker"
"The Lighthouse"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Deakins is walking away with his second Oscar tonight. 1917 is a film that revolves entirely around its cinematography due to the "one-take" approach. Voters will take notice of that.
Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Joker"
Should Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Joker"
Should Win: "1917"
Snubs: Parasite and Portrait of a Lady on Fire.
Best Costume Design
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Like Adapted Screenplay, I feel Costume Design is between Jojo Rabbit and Little Women. Both feature period costumes which the Academy tends to favor, and I think voters will want to reward Little Women in some capacity.
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Like Adapted Screenplay, I feel Costume Design is between Jojo Rabbit and Little Women. Both feature period costumes which the Academy tends to favor, and I think voters will want to reward Little Women in some capacity.
Will Win: "Little Women"
Could Win: "Jojo Rabbit"
Should Win: "Little Women" or "Jojo Rabbit"
Could Win: "Jojo Rabbit"
Should Win: "Little Women" or "Jojo Rabbit"
Snubs: Dolemite Is My Name and Rocketman.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
"1917"
"Bombshell"
"Joker"
"Judy"
"Maleficent: Mistress of Evil"
This is the first year with five nominees in this category that typically has three. I haven't seen Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, but feel it's obvious what the makeup work was. This seems like it's Bombshell's to lose because of the impressive transformations. I can see a scenario where Joker wins due to how reportedly difficult Phoenix was to deal with onset.
"Bombshell"
"Joker"
"Judy"
"Maleficent: Mistress of Evil"
This is the first year with five nominees in this category that typically has three. I haven't seen Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, but feel it's obvious what the makeup work was. This seems like it's Bombshell's to lose because of the impressive transformations. I can see a scenario where Joker wins due to how reportedly difficult Phoenix was to deal with onset.
Will Win: "Bombshell"
Could Win: "Joker"
Should Win: "Bombshell"
Could Win: "Joker"
Should Win: "Bombshell"
Snubs: Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood and Rocketman.
Best Production Design
"1917"
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
"Parasite"
This category has an excellent crop of nominees. I suspect it's between 1917 and Parasite, though. Each has a "wow factor," considering 1917 couldn't hide as much of the set, and the house in Parasite was constructed from scratch. Meanwhile, Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood featured remarkable recreations of 1969 Los Angeles.
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
"Parasite"
This category has an excellent crop of nominees. I suspect it's between 1917 and Parasite, though. Each has a "wow factor," considering 1917 couldn't hide as much of the set, and the house in Parasite was constructed from scratch. Meanwhile, Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood featured remarkable recreations of 1969 Los Angeles.
Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Parasite"
Should Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Parasite"
Should Win: "1917"
Snubs: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.
Best Visual Effects
"1917"
"Avengers: Endgame"
"The Irishman"
"The Lion King"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"
This is actually one of the trickiest categories. The precursors have each awarded different films, leaving me pretty clueless. I think 1917 will benefit most from being a Best Picture nominee as well as how its effects are less noticeable.
"Avengers: Endgame"
"The Irishman"
"The Lion King"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"
This is actually one of the trickiest categories. The precursors have each awarded different films, leaving me pretty clueless. I think 1917 will benefit most from being a Best Picture nominee as well as how its effects are less noticeable.
Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "The Irishman"
Should Win: "1917," "The Irishman," or "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker" (All deserving)
Could Win: "The Irishman"
Should Win: "1917," "The Irishman," or "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker" (All deserving)
Snubs: Ad Astra.
Best Sound Editing
"1917""Ford v Ferrari"
"Joker"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"
The Academy loves to award war films here. However, Ford v Ferrari's sound design for the racing sequences is its biggest draw. Either could win here, but I'm predicting 1917 will sweep the tech categories, so I'm going with it.
Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Ford v Ferrari"
Should Win: "1917" or "Ford v Ferrari"
Could Win: "Ford v Ferrari"
Should Win: "1917" or "Ford v Ferrari"
Snub: Avengers: Endgame and Ad Astra.
Best Sound Mixing
"1917"
"Ad Astra"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"Joker"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
See Sound Editing.
"Ad Astra"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"Joker"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
See Sound Editing.
Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Ford v Ferrari"
Should Win: "Ford v Ferrari"
Could Win: "Ford v Ferrari"
Should Win: "Ford v Ferrari"
Snub: Rocketman and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.
Best Original Song
"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" from "Toy Story 4""(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" from "Rocketman"
"I'm Standing With You" from "Breakthrough"
"Into The Unknown" from "Frozen II"
"Stand Up" from "Harriet"
I figure the Academy will want to award Rocketman something and it will be the first Original Song win for Elton John and his songwriting partner Bernie Taupin to win together (Elton's won previously with Tim Rice for "Can You Feel The Love Tonight" from the animated The Lion King). The two Disney songs will probably split the vote and allow them to cruise in for an easy victory. However, "Stand Up" could potentially upset due to that as well.
Will Win: "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" from "Rocketman"
Could Win: "Stand Up" from "Harriet"
Should Win: "Into The Unknown" from "Frozen II"
Could Win: "Stand Up" from "Harriet"
Should Win: "Into The Unknown" from "Frozen II"
Snubs: "Daily Battles" from Motherless Brooklyn, "Show Yourself" from Frozen II, and "Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" from Wild Rose.
Best Original Score
"1917"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Marriage Story"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"
Hildur Guðnadóttir's won all the precursors, so I think she's got this one locked. If she wins, she'll be the first solo female composer to do so. However, the Academy's yet to award Thomas Newman, and he's been nominated for fifteen Oscars, so he could upset. One interesting tidbit is that nominees Randy and Thomas Newman are cousins.
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Marriage Story"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"
Hildur Guðnadóttir's won all the precursors, so I think she's got this one locked. If she wins, she'll be the first solo female composer to do so. However, the Academy's yet to award Thomas Newman, and he's been nominated for fifteen Oscars, so he could upset. One interesting tidbit is that nominees Randy and Thomas Newman are cousins.
Will Win: "Joker"
Could Win: "1917"
Should Win: I honestly can't choose a favorite between these (All are deserving)
Could Win: "1917"
Should Win: I honestly can't choose a favorite between these (All are deserving)
Snubs: Avengers: Endgame and How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World.
Best Animated Feature
"How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World"
"I Lost My Body"
"Klaus"
"Missing Link"
"Toy Story 4"
Lately, I've been sensing an anti-Disney sentiment in this category. I think many in the industry are resentful about the 20th Century Fox acquisition. Therefore, I'm uncertain of Toy Story 4's chances, especially considering Frozen II wasn't nominated. Missing Link won the Golden Globe while Klaus won the Annie Award and BAFTA.
"I Lost My Body"
"Klaus"
"Missing Link"
"Toy Story 4"
Lately, I've been sensing an anti-Disney sentiment in this category. I think many in the industry are resentful about the 20th Century Fox acquisition. Therefore, I'm uncertain of Toy Story 4's chances, especially considering Frozen II wasn't nominated. Missing Link won the Golden Globe while Klaus won the Annie Award and BAFTA.
Will Win: "Klaus"
Could Win: "Toy Story 4"
Should Win: "How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World"
Could Win: "Toy Story 4"
Should Win: "How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World"
Best International Feature Film
"Corpus Christi"
"Honeyland"
"Les Misérables"
"Pain and Glory"
"Parasite"
"Honeyland"
"Les Misérables"
"Pain and Glory"
"Parasite"
I've only seen two of these, as of writing, but this is Parasite's guaranteed win of the night.
Will Win: "Parasite"
Could Win: "Pain and Glory"
Should Win: "Parasite"
Best Documentary Feature
"American Factory"
"The Cave"
"The Edge of Democracy"
"For Sama"
"Honeyland"
I haven't watched any of these yet. The Obamas produced American Factory, and that documentary is widely accessible through Netflix. Meanwhile, For Sama is about Syrian refugees so I could see passionate voters behind it.
"The Cave"
"The Edge of Democracy"
"For Sama"
"Honeyland"
I haven't watched any of these yet. The Obamas produced American Factory, and that documentary is widely accessible through Netflix. Meanwhile, For Sama is about Syrian refugees so I could see passionate voters behind it.
Will Win: "For Sama"
Could Win: "American Factory"
Could Win: "American Factory"
Snub: "Apollo 11."
Best Documentary, Short Subject
"In The Absence"
"Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're A Girl)"
"Life Overtakes Me"
"St. Louis Superman"
"Walk Run Cha-Cha"
I haven't seen any of these, so I'm just guessing, to be honest.
Will Win: "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're A Girl)"
I found all of these online, watched them yesterday, and was surprised how universally depressing they all were. I think Hair Love may win since its written and co-directed by former NFL player, Matthew Cherry.
Will Win: "Hair Love"
Could Win: "Kitbull"
Should Win: "Hair Love"
"Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're A Girl)"
"Life Overtakes Me"
"St. Louis Superman"
"Walk Run Cha-Cha"
I haven't seen any of these, so I'm just guessing, to be honest.
Will Win: "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're A Girl)"
Best Short Film, Live Action
"Brotherhood"
"Nefta Football Club"
"The Neighbors' Window"
"Saria"
"A Sister"
I watched two of these yesterday, and will try to cram Nefta Football Club in before the ceremony. The Neighbors' Window was the most impressive so I'm going with that for simplicity's sake.
Will Win: "The Neighbors' Window"
Should Win: "The Neighbors' Window"
"Nefta Football Club"
"The Neighbors' Window"
"Saria"
"A Sister"
I watched two of these yesterday, and will try to cram Nefta Football Club in before the ceremony. The Neighbors' Window was the most impressive so I'm going with that for simplicity's sake.
Will Win: "The Neighbors' Window"
Should Win: "The Neighbors' Window"
Best Short Film, Animated
"Dcera (Daughter)"
"Hair Love"
"Kitbull"
"Memorable"
"Sister"
I found all of these online, watched them yesterday, and was surprised how universally depressing they all were. I think Hair Love may win since its written and co-directed by former NFL player, Matthew Cherry.
Will Win: "Hair Love"
Could Win: "Kitbull"
Should Win: "Hair Love"
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