2021 Oscar Predictions

Once again, my annual Oscar coverage is coming to a close. It's time to predict the winners for tonight's ceremony. For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to leave out commentary and pictures. I know I won't guess every category correctly, but that's part of the fun. I also didn't review most of the nominees before the ceremony, so I'll correct that soon.

2021 Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

"The Father"

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Mank"

"Minari"

"Nomadland"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Sound of Metal"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Will Win: "Nomadland"
Could Win: "Trial of the Chicago 7"
Should Win: "The Father," "Promising Young Woman," or "Minari" (All deserving)

Snubs: Another Round, Borat Subsequent MovieFilm, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, One Night in Miami, Palm Springs, and Soul.

Best Director

Emerald Fennell, "Promising Young Woman"

David Fincher, "Mank"

Lee Isaac Chung, "Minari"

Thomas Vinterberg, "Another Round"

Chloé Zhao, "Nomadland"

Will Win: Chloé Zhao, "Nomadland"
Could Win: Lee Isaac Chung, "Minari"
Should Win: All deserving

Snubs: Regina King, One Night in Miami, Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods, Christopher Nolan, Tenet, and Florian Zeller, The Father.

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed, "Sound of Metal"

Chadwick Boseman, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Anthony Hopkins, "The Father"

Gary Oldman, "Mank"

Steven Yeun, "Minari"

Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Could Win: Anthony Hopkins, "The Father"
Should Win: Riz Ahmed, "Sound of Metal," Chadwick Boseman, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom," and Anthony Hopkins, "The Father"

Snubs: Ben Affleck, The Wayback, Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods, and Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round.

Best Actress

Viola Davis, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Andra Day, "The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

Vanessa Kirby, "Pieces of a Woman"

Frances McDormand, "Nomadland"

Carey Mulligan, "Promising Young Woman"

Will Win: Carey Mulligan, "Promising Young Woman"
Could Win: Viola Davis, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" or Frances McDormand, "Nomadland"

Should Win: Carey Mulligan, "Promising Young Woman"

Snubs: Cristin Milloti, Palm Springs and Han Ye-ri, Minari.

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen, "The Trial of the Chicago 7"
Daniel Kaluuya, "Judas and the Black Messiah"

Leslie Odom Jr., "One Night in Miami"

Paul Raci, "Sound of Metal"

LaKeith Stanfield, "Judas and the Black Messiah"

Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, "Judas and the Black Messiah"
Could Win: Paul Raci, "Sound of Metal"
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya, "Judas and the Black Messiah" or Paul Raci, "Sound of Metal"

Snubs: Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods, Alan Kim, Minari, and Bill Murray, On The Rocks.

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova, "Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm"

Glenn Close, "Hillbilly Elegy"

Olivia Colman, "The Father"

Amanda Seyfried, "Mank"

Youn Yuh-Jung, "Minari"

Will Win: Youn Yuh-Jung, "Minari"
Could Win: Maria Bakalova, "Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm"or Glenn Close, "Hillbilly Elegy'
Should Win: Maria Bakalova, "Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm," or Youn Yuh-Jung, "Minari"

Snubs: Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian and Helena Zengel, News of the World.

Best Original Screenplay

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Minari"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Sound of Metal"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Will Win: "Promising Young Woman"
Could Win: "Judas and the Black Messiah" or "Minari"
Should Win: "Promising Young Woman"

Snub: Another Round, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs, and Soul.

Best Adapted Screenplay

"Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm"

"The Father"

"Nomadland"

"One Night in Miami"

"The White Tiger"

Will Win: "Nomadland"

Could Win: "The Father"
Should Win: "The Father"

Snubs: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

Best Film Editing

"The Father"

"Nomadland"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Sound of Metal"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Will Win: "Trial of the Chicago 7"
Could Win: "Sound of Metal" 
Should Win: "The Father" or "Sound of Metal"

Snubs: Tenet.

Best Cinematography

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Mank"

"News of the World"

"Nomadland"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Will Win: "Nomadland"
Could Win: "Mank"
Should Win: "Nomadland"

Snubs: Another Round, Da 5 Bloods, and Tenet.

Best Costume Design

"Emma"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Mank"

"Mulan"

"Pinocchio"

Will Win: "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"
Could Win: "Mank"
Should Win: "Emma" or "Mank"

Snubs: Promising Young Woman and Wonder Woman 1984.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

"Emma"

"Hillbilly Elegy"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Mank"

"Pinocchio"

Will Win: "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"
Could Win: "Pinocchio"
Should Win: "Pinocchio"

Snubs: Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn.

Best Production Design

"The Father"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Mank"

"News of the World"

"Tenet"

Will Win: "Mank"
Could Win: "The Father"or "Tenet"

Should Win: "The Father" or "Tenet"

Snubs: Promising Young Woman.

Best Visual Effects

"Love and Monsters"

"The Midnight Sky"

"Mulan"

"The One and Only Ivan"

"Tenet"

Will Win: "The Midnight Sky"
Could Win: "Tenet"
Should Win: "Tenet"

Snubs: Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn, The Invisible Man, and Mank.

Best Sound

"Greyhound"

"Mank"

"News of the World"

"Soul"

"Sound of Metal"

Will Win: "Sound of Metal"
Could Win: "Greyhound"
Should Win: "Sound of Metal"

Snub: The Invisible Man

Best Original Song

"Fight For You" from "Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Hear My Voice" from "The Trial of the Chicago 7"

"Húsavík" from "Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga"

"Io Si (Seen)" from "The Life Ahead"

"Speak Now" from "One Night in Miami"

Will Win: "Io Is (Seen)" from "The Life Ahead"
Could Win: "Fight for You" from "Judas and the Black Messiah"
Should Win: "Speak Now" from "One Night in Miami "

Snubs: "The Plan" from Tenet.

Best Original Score

"Da 5 Bloods"

"Mank"

"Minari"

"News of the World"

"Soul"

Will Win: "Soul"
Could Win: "Minari"
Should Win: "Da 5 Bloods," "Minari," or "Soul"

Snubs: Tenet.

Best Animated Feature

"Onward"

"Over The Moon"

"A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon" 

"Soul"

"Wolfwalkers"

Will Win: "Soul"
Could Win: "Wolfwalkers"
Should Win: "Soul" or "Wolfwalkers"

Best International Feature Film

"Another Round"

"Better Days"

"Collective"

"The Man Who Sold His Skin"

"Quo Vadis, Aida?"

Will Win: "Another Round"

Should Win: "Another Round"

Best Documentary Feature

"Collective"

"Crip Camp"

"The Mole Agent"

"My Octopus Teacher"

"Time"

Will Win: "My Octopus Teacher"

Best Documentary, Short Subject

"Collette"
"A Concerto is a Conversation"
"Do Not Split"
"Hunger Ward"
"A Love Song for Latasha"

Will Win: "A Love Song for Latasha"

Best Short Film, Live Action

"Feeling Through"

"The Letter Room"

"The Present"

"Two Distant Strangers"

"White Eye"

Will Win: "Two Distant Strangers"

Best Short Film, Animated

"Burrow"

"Genius Loci"

"If Anything Happens I Love You"

"Opera"

"Yes People"

Will Win: "Burrow"

My 2021 Oscar Nominee Picks and Predictions

Every year, I share a series of posts revolving around the Oscars. While it may seem like there weren't many films released in 2020, 366 total feature films were eligible for this 93rd Academy Awards. That's the most that have been in contention for the Oscars since 1970, where 374 were eligible. This is largely due to flexibility in eligibility requirements seeing as theaters were closed for a majority of the year. Therefore, streaming services like Netflix, Hulu, and Prime Video will have a huge presence among the nominees. While streamers have steadily become more prominent in the awards race for film and television, this could potentially signal the start of a major paradigm shift towards streaming. 

This post will detail the films I'd personally nominate for each category and what I suspect will be nominated. While I definitely didn't see as many films as I usually would due to the pandemic, I think I've seen enough of the contenders and films I was personally interested in to carry forward with this tradition. Many of the films I mention throughout this list will be films I've yet to review since I'm behind on reviews. Those reviews will come in time, and one of my main priorities will be to get those all out in addition to my Top 10 Films of 2020 before this Oscars air on April 25th.

As always, my picks consist of long shots and likely nominees. If something's not listed, it probably barely missed the cut and there were many categories that were especially difficult to whittle down. As for my predictions, I looked to the precursor award show nominees, shortlists, and patterns I've noticed in recent years. It's very unlikely all of these predictions will pan out since there are always surprises and snubs. Nevertheless, I'm going to give it my best shot and see how close I am tomorrow. You'll also probably notice that a few of the more obscure categories are missing and that's because I haven't seen enough documentaries, shorts, or foreign films this year. 

My 2021 Oscar Nominee Picks and Predictions

Best Picture

My Personal Picks:

"Another Round"

"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm"

"Da 5 Bloods"

"The Father"

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Minari"

"Palm Springs"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Sound of Metal"

"Soul"

**The Academy has a sliding scale of Best Picture nominees every year, so I'm listing nine in my predictions**

My Predictions:

"The Father"

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Mank"

"Minari"

"Nomadland"

"One Night in Miami"

"Promising Young Woman"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Best Director

My Personal Picks: (I'm selecting six nominees here because I couldn't decide on five)

Emerald Fennell, "Promising Young Woman"

Lee Isaac Chung, "Minari"

Spike Lee, "Da 5 Bloods"

Christopher Nolan, "Tenet"

Florian Zeller, "The Father"

Chloé Zhao, "Nomadland"

My Predictions:

Emerald Fennell, "Promising Young Woman"

David Fincher, "Mank"

Lee Isaac Chung, "Minari"

Aaron Sorkin, "The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Chloé Zhao, "Nomadland"

Best Actor

My Personal Picks: (I'm selecting six nominees here because I couldn't decide on five)

Riz Ahmed, "Sound of Metal"

Chadwick Boseman, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Anthony Hopkins, "The Father"

Delroy Lindo, "Da 5 Bloods"

Mads Mikkelsen, "Another Round"

Steven Yeun, "Minari"

My Predictions:

Riz Ahmed, "Sound of Metal"

Chadwick Boseman, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Anthony Hopkins, "The Father"

Gary Oldman, "Mank"

Steven Yeun, "Minari"

Best Actress

My Personal Picks:

Andra Day, "The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

Vanessa Kirby, "Pieces of a Woman"

Cristin Milioti, "Palm Springs"

Carey Mulligan, "Promising Young Woman"

Han Ye-ri, "Minari"

My Predictions:

Viola Davis, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Andra Day, "The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

Vanessa Kirby, "Pieces of a Woman"

Frances McDormand, "Nomadland"

Carey Mulligan, "Promising Young Woman"

Best Supporting Actor

My Personal Picks:

Chadwick Boseman, "Da 5 Bloods"

Daniel Kaluuya, "Judas and the Black Messiah"

Alan Kim, "Minari"

Bill Murray, "On The Rocks"

Paul Raci, "Sound of Metal"

My Predictions:

Sacha Baron Cohen, "The Trial of the Chicago 7"
Chadwick Boseman, "Da 5 Bloods"

Daniel Kaluuya, "Judas and the Black Messiah"

Jared Leto, "The Little Things"

Leslie Odom Jr., "One Night in Miami"

Best Supporting Actress

My Personal Picks:

Maria Bakalova, "Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm"

Olivia Colman, "The Father"

Amanda Seyfried, "Mank"

Youn Yuh-Jung, "Minari"

Helena Zengel, "News of the World"

My Predictions:

Maria Bakalova, "Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm"

Olivia Colman, "The Father"

Jodie Foster, "The Mauritanian"

Amanda Seyfried, "Mank"

Youn Yuh-Jung, "Minari"

Best Original Screenplay

My Personal Picks: (I'm selecting six nominees here because I couldn't decide on five)

"Another Round"

"Da 5 Bloods"

"Minari"

"Palm Springs"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Soul"

My Predictions:

"Mank"

"Minari"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Sound of Metal"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Personal Picks:

"Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm"

"The Father"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Nomadland"

"One Night in Miami"

My Predictions:

"Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm"

"The Father"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Nomadland"

"One Night in Miami"

Best Film Editing

My Personal Picks:
"The Father"

"Nomadland"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Sound of Metal"

"Tenet"

My Predictions:

"Mank"

"Nomadland"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Sound of Metal"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Best Cinematography

My Personal Picks:
"Another Round"

"Da 5 Bloods"

"Mank"

"Minari"

"Nomadland"

My Predictions:

"Mank"

"Minari"

"News of the World"

"Nomadland"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Best Costume Design

My Personal Picks:
"Emma"

"Mank"

"Mulan"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Wonder Woman 1984"

My Predictions:

"Emma"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Mank"

"Mulan"

"Promising Young Woman"

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

My Personal Picks:

"Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)"

"Emma"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Mank"

"Pinocchio"

My Predictions:

"Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)"

"Hillbilly Elegy"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Mank"

"Pinocchio"

Best Production Design

My Personal Picks:

"The Father"

"Mank"

"Mulan"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Tenet"

My Predictions:

"Mank"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"The Midnight Sky"

"News of the World"

"Tenet"

Best Visual Effects

My Personal Picks:
"Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)"

"The Invisible Man"

"Mank"

"Soul"

"Tenet"

My Predictions:

"Mank"

"The Midnight Sky"

"Soul"

"Tenet"

"Welcome to Chechnya"

Best Sound

My Personal Picks:
"Da 5 Bloods"

"The Invisible Man"

"Mank"

"Sound of Metal"

"Tenet"

My Predictions:

"Greyhound"

"Mank"

"News of the World"

"Nomadland"

"Sound of Metal"

Best Original Song

My Personal Picks:

"Húsavík" from "Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga"

"Io Si (Seen)" from "The Life Ahead"

"The Plan" from "Tenet"

"Rain Song" from "Minari"

"Speak Now" from "One Night in Miami"

My Predictions:
"Fight For You" from "Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Hear My Voice" from "The Trial of the Chicago 7"

"Turntables" from "All In: The Fight For Democracy" 

"Io Si (Seen)" from "The Life Ahead"

"Speak Now" from "One Night in Miami"

Best Original Score

My Personal Picks:
"Mank"

"Minari"

"Soul"

"Tenet"

"Wolfwalkers"

My Predictions:

"Mank"

"The Midnight Sky"

"Minari"

"Soul"

"Tenet"

Best Animated Feature

My Personal Picks: (I only saw four animated films last year as of writing this)
"The Croods: A New Age"

"Onward"

"Soul"

"Wolfwalkers"

My Predictions:

"The Croods: A New Age"

"Onward"

"Over The Moon"

"Soul"

"Wolfwalkers"

2020 Oscar Predictions

I've reached the final phase in my annual Oscar coverage. It's time to predict the winners. Chances are I'll be wrong about quite a few of these, but I'm basing my guesses on the results of precursor awards, my knowledge of the Academy, and gut instincts. Like last year, I'll include a brief blurb with my thoughts on the category and reasoning behind my choices. I won't do this for every category since I haven't seen every nominee, but I'll dive into the rest.

2020 Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

"1917"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Marriage Story"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
"Parasite"

Starting with the big prize, 1917 has steamrolled its competition at the precursors. It's won at the Golden Globes, DGA, PGA, CAS, ASC, and BAFTA awards, which seems like a potent combination. However, there is clearly a widespread passion for Parasite considering its SAG Ensemble, ACE, ADG, and WGA wins and the standing ovation it received during the SAG Awards, which is important to take note of considering actors are the largest voting branch of the Academy. I'm predicting 1917 because it seems like the safer choice, but I'd certainly love an upset from Parasite.

The third film to keep an eye on is Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood. It's an old fashioned movie made by a well-respected writer/director about Hollywood. Those three films will undoubtedly perform best on the preferential ballot. Jojo Rabbit and Joker are also realistic possibilities considering their key Editing and Screenplay nominations.

Meanwhile, it's just depressing that The Irishman's Oscar chances have faded almost completely, and it may walk away tonight empty-handed in spite of receiving ten nominations. Otherwise, I like all these nominees and would be happy with any of them winning. I'd LOVE for Marriage Story to win, but that's an unrealistic pipe dream at this point.

Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Parasite"
Should Win: "Marriage Story," "Parasite," or "1917" (All deserving)

Snubs: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Farewell, Knives Out, and Portrait of a Lady on Fire.

Best Director

Bong Joon-Ho, "Parasite"
Martin Scorsese, "The Irishman"
Quentin Tarantino, "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Sam Mendes, "1917"
Todd Phillips, "Joker"

This category has a similar story as Best Picture. It's between Mendes and Bong. Mendes won at the Director's Guild and has the movie with "showier direction" that the Academy tends to favor while Bong's got a passionate following. A split in voting could lead to one of the other three emerging as a surprise winner, but I doubt that'll be the case.

Will Win: Sam Mendes, "1917"
Could Win: Bong Joon-Ho, "Parasite"
Should Win: Bong Joon-Ho, "Parasite"

Snubs: Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story, Greta Gerwig, Little Women, Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Céline Sciamma, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, and Lulu Wang, The Farewell.

Best Actor

Adam Driver, "Marriage Story"
Antonio Banderas, "Pain and Glory"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Joker"
Jonathan Pryce, "The Two Popes"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"

Joaquin Phoenix has got this win locked. While I wish it were going to Adam Driver, Phoenix has swept all the precursors, and his performance was one of the few almost universally acclaimed aspects of a controversial film.

Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, "Joker"
Could Win: Adam Driver "Marriage Story"
Should Win: Adam Driver, "Marriage Story"

Snubs: Robert De Niro, The Irishman, Taron Egerton, Rocketman, and Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems.

Best Actress

Charlize Theron, "Bombshell"
Cynthia Erivo, "Harriet"
Renée Zellweger, "Judy"
Saoirse Ronan, "Little Women"
Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"

See Best Actor, but substitute Zellweger for Phoenix and Johansson/Ronan for Driver.

Will Win: Renée Zellweger, "Judy"
Could Win: Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan, "Little Women" or Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"

Snubs: Ana De Armas, Knives Out, Awkwafina, The Farewell, and Lupita Nyong'o, Us.

Best Supporting Actor

Al Pacino, "The Irishman"
Anthony Hopkins, "The Two Popes"
Brad Pitt, "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Tom Hanks, "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood"

Again, Pitt has won every precursor, so he's pretty much got this locked.

Will Win: Brad Pitt, "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood"
Could Win: Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Should Win: Brad Pitt "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood" or Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"

Snubs: Song Kang-Ho, Parasite.

Best Supporting Actress

Florence Pugh, "Little Women"
Kathy Bates, "Richard Jewell"
Laura Dern, "Marriage Story"
Margot Robbie, "Bombshell"
Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit"

And Dern also won all the precursors. The four acting categories are pretty much locked.

Will Win: Laura Dern, "Marriage Story"
Could Win: Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit"
Should Win: Margot Robbie, "Bombshell," or Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit" (All deserving)

Snubs: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers, Park So Dam, Parasite, and Zhao Shuzen, The Farewell.

Best Original Screenplay

"1917"
"Knives Out"
"Marriage Story"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
"Parasite"

Parasite seems to be in a prime position to take Original Screenplay considering its win at the Writer's Guild. However, Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood wasn't eligible there so it could snatch a surprise victory.

Will Win: "Parasite"
Could Win: "Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
Should Win: "Marriage Story"

Snub: Portrait of a Lady on Fire.

Best Adapted Screenplay

"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"The Two Popes"

Adapted Screenplay is between Jojo Rabbit and Little Women. Jojo Rabbit won the WGA and BAFTA, so it seems more likely, but I can see a scenario where voters want to reward Gerwig since she was snubbed for Director.

Will Win: "Jojo Rabbit"
Could Win: "Little Women"
Should Win: "The Irishman"

Snubs: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Dark Waters.

Best Film Editing

"Ford v Ferrari"
"The Irishman"

"Jojo Rabbit"

"Joker"

"Parasite"

Parasite and Ford v Ferrari seem equally likely given their precursor wins. Both would be well-deserved winners, but its a matter of passion vs. bias against foreign films. Older Academy voters will probably lean towards Ford v Ferrari.

Will Win: "Ford v Ferrari"
Could Win: "Parasite" 
Should Win: "Ford v Ferrari" or "Parasite"

Snubs: Little Women, Marriage Story, and Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood.

Best Cinematography

"1917"
"The Irishman"
"Joker"
"The Lighthouse"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"

Deakins is walking away with his second Oscar tonight. 1917 is a film that revolves entirely around its cinematography due to the "one-take" approach. Voters will take notice of that.

Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Joker"
Should Win: "1917"

Snubs: Parasite and Portrait of a Lady on Fire.

Best Costume Design

"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"

Like Adapted Screenplay, I feel Costume Design is between Jojo Rabbit and Little Women. Both feature period costumes which the Academy tends to favor, and I think voters will want to reward Little Women in some capacity.

Will Win: "Little Women"
Could Win: "Jojo Rabbit"
Should Win: "Little Women" or "Jojo Rabbit"

Snubs: Dolemite Is My Name and Rocketman.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

"1917"
"Bombshell"
"Joker"
"Judy"
"Maleficent: Mistress of Evil"

This is the first year with five nominees in this category that typically has three. I haven't seen Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, but feel it's obvious what the makeup work was. This seems like it's Bombshell's to lose because of the impressive transformations. I can see a scenario where Joker wins due to how reportedly difficult Phoenix was to deal with onset.

Will Win: "Bombshell"
Could Win: "Joker"
Should Win: "Bombshell"

Snubs: Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood and Rocketman.

Best Production Design

"1917"
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
"Parasite"

This category has an excellent crop of nominees. I suspect it's between 1917 and Parasite, though. Each has a "wow factor," considering 1917 couldn't hide as much of the set, and the house in Parasite was constructed from scratch. Meanwhile, Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood featured remarkable recreations of 1969 Los Angeles.

Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Parasite"
Should Win: "1917"

Snubs: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.

Best Visual Effects

"1917"
"Avengers: Endgame"
"The Irishman"
"The Lion King"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

This is actually one of the trickiest categories. The precursors have each awarded different films, leaving me pretty clueless. I think 1917 will benefit most from being a Best Picture nominee as well as how its effects are less noticeable.

Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "The Irishman"
Should Win: "1917," "The Irishman," or "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker" (All deserving)

Snubs: Ad Astra.

Best Sound Editing

"1917"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"Joker"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

The Academy loves to award war films here. However, Ford v Ferrari's sound design for the racing sequences is its biggest draw. Either could win here, but I'm predicting 1917 will sweep the tech categories, so I'm going with it.

Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Ford v Ferrari"
Should Win: "1917" or "Ford v Ferrari"

Snub: Avengers: Endgame and Ad Astra.

Best Sound Mixing

"1917"
"Ad Astra"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"Joker"
"Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood"

See Sound Editing.

Will Win: "1917"
Could Win: "Ford v Ferrari"
Should Win: "Ford v Ferrari"

Snub: Rocketman and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.

Best Original Song

"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" from "Toy Story 4"
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" from "Rocketman"
"I'm Standing With You" from "Breakthrough"
"Into The Unknown" from "Frozen II"
"Stand Up" from "Harriet"

I figure the Academy will want to award Rocketman something and it will be the first Original Song win for Elton John and his songwriting partner Bernie Taupin to win together (Elton's won previously with Tim Rice for "Can You Feel The Love Tonight" from the animated The Lion King). The two Disney songs will probably split the vote and allow them to cruise in for an easy victory. However, "Stand Up" could potentially upset due to that as well.

Will Win: "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" from "Rocketman"
Could Win: "Stand Up" from "Harriet"
Should Win: "Into The Unknown" from "Frozen II"

Snubs: "Daily Battles" from Motherless Brooklyn, "Show Yourself" from Frozen II, and "Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" from Wild Rose.

Best Original Score

"1917"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Marriage Story"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

Hildur Guðnadóttir's won all the precursors, so I think she's got this one locked. If she wins, she'll be the first solo female composer to do so. However, the Academy's yet to award Thomas Newman, and he's been nominated for fifteen Oscars, so he could upset. One interesting tidbit is that nominees Randy and Thomas Newman are cousins.

Will Win: "Joker"
Could Win: "1917"
Should Win: I honestly can't choose a favorite between these (All are deserving)

Snubs: Avengers: Endgame and How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World.

Best Animated Feature

"How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World"
"I Lost My Body"
"Klaus"
"Missing Link"
"Toy Story 4"

Lately, I've been sensing an anti-Disney sentiment in this category. I think many in the industry are resentful about the 20th Century Fox acquisition. Therefore, I'm uncertain of Toy Story 4's chances, especially considering Frozen II wasn't nominated. Missing Link won the Golden Globe while Klaus won the Annie Award and BAFTA.

Will Win: "Klaus"
Could Win: "Toy Story 4"
Should Win: "How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World"

Best International Feature Film

"Corpus Christi"
"Honeyland"
"Les Misérables"
"Pain and Glory"
"Parasite"

I've only seen two of these, as of writing, but this is Parasite's guaranteed win of the night. 

Will Win: "Parasite"

Could Win: "Pain and Glory"

Should Win: "Parasite"

Best Documentary Feature

"American Factory"
"The Cave"
"The Edge of Democracy"
"For Sama"
"Honeyland"

I haven't watched any of these yet. The Obamas produced American Factory, and that documentary is widely accessible through Netflix. Meanwhile, For Sama is about Syrian refugees so I could see passionate voters behind it.

Will Win: "For Sama"
Could Win: "American Factory"

Snub: "Apollo 11."

Best Documentary, Short Subject

"In The Absence"
"Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're A Girl)"
"Life Overtakes Me"
"St. Louis Superman"
"Walk Run Cha-Cha"

I haven't seen any of these, so I'm just guessing, to be honest.

Will Win: "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're A Girl)"

Best Short Film, Live Action

"Brotherhood"
"Nefta Football Club"
"The Neighbors' Window"
"Saria"
"A Sister"

I watched two of these yesterday, and will try to cram Nefta Football Club in before the ceremony. The Neighbors' Window was the most impressive so I'm going with that for simplicity's sake.

Will Win: "The Neighbors' Window"
Should Win: "The Neighbors' Window"

Best Short Film, Animated

"Dcera (Daughter)"

"Hair Love"

"Kitbull"

"Memorable"

"Sister"

I found all of these online, watched them yesterday, and was surprised how universally depressing they all were. I think Hair Love may win since its written and co-directed by former NFL player, Matthew Cherry.

Will Win: "Hair Love"
Could Win: "Kitbull"
Should Win: "Hair Love"

My 2020 Oscar Nominee Picks & Predictions

Annually, I share a series of posts revolving around the Oscars. These include my predictions for the nominees, a post about the nominations, final predictions, and the results with commentary. Typically, my picks consist of long shots and likely nominees. If something's not listed, it probably barely missed the cut and there were many categories that were especially difficult to whittle down such as Director, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, and the four acting categories. As for my predictions, I looked to the precursor award show nominees, shortlists, and patterns I've noticed in recent years. It's very unlikely all of these predictions will pan out since there are always surprises and snubs. Nevertheless, I'm going to give it my best shot and see how close I am tomorrow. You'll also probably notice that a few of the more obscure categories are missing and that's because I haven't seen enough documentaries, shorts, or foreign films this year. However, I did watch more foreign films than I did last season, so I'm making progress!

My 2020 Oscar Nominee Picks and Predictions

Best Picture

My Personal Picks:

"1917"
"Ad Astra"
"The Farewell"
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Knives Out"
"Marriage Story"
"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
"Parasite"
"Portrait of a Lady on Fire"

**The Academy has a sliding scale of Best Picture nominees every year, so I'm listing nine in my predictions**

My Predictions:

"1917"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Marriage Story"
"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
"Parasite"

Best Director

My Personal Picks:

Bong Joon-Ho, "Parasite"
Céline Sciamma, "Portrait of a Lady on Fire"
Martin Scorsese, "The Irishman"
Noah Baumbauch, "Marriage Story"
Sam Mendes, "1917"

My Predictions:

Bong Joon-Ho, "Parasite"
Greta Gerwig, "Little Women"
Martin Scorsese, "The Irishman"
Quentin Tarantino, "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
Sam Mendes, "1917"

Best Actor

My Personal Picks:

Adam Driver, "Marriage Story"
Brad Pitt, "Ad Astra"
George MacKay, "1917"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Joker"
Robert DeNiro, "The Irishman"

My Predictions:

Adam Driver, "Marriage Story"
Christian Bale, "Ford v Ferrari"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Joker"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
Taron Egerton, "Rocketman"

Best Actress

My Personal Picks:

Ana De Armas, "Knives Out"
Awkwafina, "The Farewell"
Lupita Nyong'o, "Us"
Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"
Noémie Merlant, "Portrait of a Lady on Fire"

My Predictions:

Awkwafina, "The Farewell"
Charlize Theron, "Bombshell"
Lupita Nyong'o, "Us"

Renée Zellweger, "Judy"

Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"

Best Supporting Actor

My Personal Picks:

Al Pacino, "The Irishman"
Brad Pitt, "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Tom Hanks, "A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood"
Song Kang-Ho, "Parasite"

My Predictions:

Al Pacino, "The Irishman"
Anthony Hopkins, "The Two Popes"
Brad Pitt, "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Tom Hanks, "A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood"

Best Supporting Actress

My Personal Picks:

Jennifer Lopez, "Hustlers"
Laura Dern, "Marriage Story"
Margot Robbie, "Bombshell/Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood" (can't choose)
Park So Dam, "Parasite"
Zhao Shuzen, "The Farewell"

My Predictions:

Florence Pugh, "Little Women"
Jennifer Lopez, "Hustlers"
Laura Dern, "Marriage Story"
Margot Robbie, "Bombshell"
Zhao Shuzen, "The Farewell"

Best Original Screenplay

My Personal Picks:
"The Farewell"
"Knives Out"
"Marriage Story"
"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
"Parasite"

My Predictions:

"1917"
"Knives Out"
"Marriage Story"
"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
"Parasite"

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Personal Picks:
"A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood"
"Dark Waters"
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Little Women"

My Predictions:

"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"The Two Popes" 

Best Film Editing

My Personal Picks:
"Ford v Ferrari"
"The Irishman"
"Marriage Story"
"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
"Parasite"

My Predictions:

"1917"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"The Irishman"
"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
"Parasite"

Best Cinematography

My Personal Picks:
"1917"
"Joker"
"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
"Parasite"
"Portrait of a Lady on Fire"

My Predictions:

"1917"
"The Irishman"
"Joker"
"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
"Parasite"

Best Costume Design

My Personal Picks:
"Dolemite Is My Name"
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
"Rocketman"

My Predictions:

"Dolemite Is My Name"
"The Irishman"
"Little Women"
"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
"Rocketman"

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

My Personal Picks:
"1917"
"Bombshell"
"Joker"
"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
"Rocketman"

My Predictions:

"1917"
"Bombshell"
"Joker"
"Judy"

"Rocketman"

Best Production Design

My Personal Picks:
"1917"
"The Irishman"
"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
"Parasite"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

My Predictions:

"1917"
"The Irishman"
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
"Parasite"

Best Visual Effects

My Personal Picks:
"1917"
"Ad Astra"
"Avengers: Endgame"
"The Irishman"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

My Predictions:

"1917"
"Avengers: Endgame"
"The Irishman"
"The Lion King"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

Best Sound Editing

My Personal Picks:
"1917"
"Ad Astra"
"Avengers: Endgame"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

My Predictions:

"1917"
"Avengers: Endgame"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

Best Sound Mixing

My Personal Picks:

"1917"
"Ad Astra"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"Rocketman"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

My Predictions:

"1917"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
"Rocketman"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

Best Original Song

My Personal Picks:

"Daily Battles" from "Motherless Brooklyn"
"Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" from "Wild Rose"
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" from "Rocketman"
"Into The Unknown" from "Frozen II"
"Show Yourself" from "Frozen II"

My Predictions:
"Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" from "Wild Rose"
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" from "Rocketman"
"Into The Unknown" from "Frozen II"
"Spirit" from "The Lion King"
"Stand Up" from "Harriet"

Best Original Score

My Personal Picks: (The one category where I couldn't possibly narrow down to five nominees)
"1917"
"Avengers: Endgame"
"How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World"
"Joker"
"Marriage Story"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

My Predictions:

"1917"
"Joker"
"Little Women"
"Marriage Story"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

Best Animated Feature

My Personal Picks:
"How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World"
"Klaus"
"The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part"
"Missing Link"

"Toy Story 4"

My Predictions:

"Frozen II"
"How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World"
"I Lost My Body"
"Missing Link"
"Toy Story 4"